As trade tensions reignite, is confrontation inevitable? Given the extent of supply chain reconfiguration, probably not catastrophic. This column has long maintained that without comprehensive trade restrictions, the impact remains contained. Consider any household appliance — can you definitively trace its true origin? The same applies to countless manufactured goods. The broader trade war dynamics tell an instructive story.
From approximately a year ago, when Donald Trump's electoral prospects appeared strong, through to the present, import data reveals a predictable pattern: US buyers frontloaded purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs, volumes normalised once duties took effect, then recovered modestly following July's brief détente. Across these three quarters, US imports not only held steady but actually expanded 1 per cent, equivalent to $3.4bn. Conversely, US imports from mainland China have declined consistently, falling a cumulative $15bn since October last year.
