Sluggish retail sales in Hong Kong are widely attributed to residents heading north to spend in the Mainland. There may be some effect, but the data do not bear it out convincingly.
The Immigration Department's daily border crossing figures — covering Man Kam To, Sha Tau Kok, Shenzhen Bay, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, Hung Hom, Lo Wu, Lok Ma Chau, the Lok Ma Chau Spur Line, Heung Yuen Wai and the West Kowloon High Speed Rail terminus — allow for systematic analysis. The approach taken here is to calculate daily averages over each month for Hong Kong residents travelling north and mainland visitors travelling south, then compare these against Hong Kong retail sales values and restaurant receipts for the same months.
