Corporate profits and employment signal recession --- who sees it clearly, who does not

The standard gauge of economic cycles is output data, typically real GDP. Cycles are predominantly macro-driven phenomena, distinct from the long-run trends shaped by industrial dynamics and from the short-term noise of one-off shocks — yet GDP is not necessarily the best instrument for measuring them.

Published by:

KC Law (Economist)

Law Ka Chung is a Hong Kong economist and financial columnist.