US trade talks gain momentum: UK wins tariff reprieves, Japan negotiates with tech leverage, and the UAE pursues a CEPA path amid Middle East tariff tensions.
Macroeconomics builds on micro foundations but isn’t just micro writ large. Modern models, from growth to cycles, require dynamic optimisation and rational expectations—complex tools for a complex economy. Whether AI can break this decades-long mold remains an open question.
Why does capitalism work? Beyond empirical evidence, this is the formal mathematical proof: if preferences are reflected in prices, the market delivers a globally optimal allocation—no one can gain without someone else losing.
Econometrics isn’t just about proving causality—it’s about approximating truth. Through residual patterns, we test if a model holds. As with physics, it's less about certainty than refining the assumptions.
US long-term bonds, once seen as safe assets, are now Donald Trump’s Achilles' heel—used as bargaining chips by China and Japan amid trade war tensions, as yields soar and global investors begin to 'Sell America'
