Economy
Dollar Falls 10% in First Half, Boosting US Exports — But Will it Undermine Dollar's Global Status?
The dollar index broke below the 97 threshold on the final trading day of the second quarter, posting a cumulative decline of 10.7 per cent in the first half — its worst performance since 1973. "
First "Post-Tariff War" Earnings Season Shows Resilient Performance Despite Uncertain Outlook
Fung referenced June 2025 Federal Reserve meeting minutes, citing GDP, unemployment rate and PCE data: "We clearly see the US economy slowing slightly. Under the premise of tariff issues, forecasts for next year are slightly more pessimistic."
Economic Performance: The Long and Short of It
Is the economy performing well? Corporate failures abound. Is the economy performing poorly? No recession is in evidence. Economics is principally concerned with prices and quantities, and when examining performance, the focus is predominantly on quantities.
Game Theory Perspective on China-US Relations: A Draw is Expected
Game theory represents another principal strand in microeconomic analysis. The preceding US-China tariff conflict lends itself readily to such frameworks given its quantifiable outcomes.
Asia's Grey Supply Chains: What is 'Origin Laundering'? Can China Use This to Evade US Tariffs?
The colloquially termed "origin laundering" exists in a grey area of international trade and represents a tax avoidance method, formally known as "origin fraud" or "transshipment".
US-Vietnam Trade Agreement Insights and Details: Asian Countries May Face Higher Tariffs Than Expected as Trump Continues Pressure for De-Sinicisation
Following Britain, Vietnam has reached a trade agreement with the United States. US President Donald Trump announced the trade agreement with Vietnam on July 2, with tax rates higher than expected by the outside world.
When Everything is Endogenous, Econometrics Breaks Down
Inflation has fallen recently, and the standard explanation is economic weakness. Yet lower inflation should boost demand under basic economic principles, strengthening the economy.
Choose Less, Not Small — Go for Big and Beautiful
Fresh shocks may alter data and parameter estimates, but the core model endures — the hallmark of robust modelling. Nothing is new under the sun; resist the temptation to reinvent from scratch.
Nippon Steel–U.S. Steel: a national-security compact disguised as a takeover
The comprehensive national-security agreement that cleared the deal, however, shows Washington views it less as foreign direct investment than as a strategic joint venture it can veto at will.
The Two Welfare Theorems: Distribution Through Quantity
The two welfare theorems show that equilibrium implies optimality, and any optimal outcome can be achieved as equilibrium through redistribution. This supports quantity-based policies over price manipulation, yet governments often choose the latter, undermining efficiency.
Models Are Not Random; Residuals Must Be
When decomposing data to explain causality, the key is ensuring $\mathbf{X}'\mathbf{e} = \mathbf{0}$ — no noise in the signal, no signal in the noise. This condition underpins valid statistical inference and model credibility.
Trade War - US Reciprocal Tariff Negotiations with China and Canada Set Deadlines for Agreement
Recent tariff negotiations between the US, China, and Canada show signs of progress. China and the US reached a framework deal with reduced tariffs and export concessions, while US-Canada talks aim to integrate trade with broader security and regulatory cooperation.
Trade Negotiations Enter Critical Phase: Understanding Progress with Japan, UK, and Middle East
US trade talks gain momentum: UK wins tariff reprieves, Japan negotiates with tech leverage, and the UAE pursues a CEPA path amid Middle East tariff tensions.
From Micro to Macro: Long and Short Versions
Macroeconomics builds on micro foundations but isn’t just micro writ large. Modern models, from growth to cycles, require dynamic optimisation and rational expectations—complex tools for a complex economy. Whether AI can break this decades-long mold remains an open question.
Capitalism Triumphs Over Communism: The Proof is Clear
Why does capitalism work? Beyond empirical evidence, this is the formal mathematical proof: if preferences are reflected in prices, the market delivers a globally optimal allocation—no one can gain without someone else losing.