As Donald Trump returns to the international stage with a hard-edged posture, the global diplomatic and security landscape has instantly pivoted. A series of aggressive moves has not only disrupted the existing balance of power, but also compelled nations to recalibrate their positions within this new paradigm.
However, this transition is not a simplistic Cold War-style "binary choice." According to the latest polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), as the U.S.-led global order begins to loosen, non-Western societies are realizing they no longer need to take orders from Washington. Instead, they can extract benefits from both sides of the U.S.-China divide.
Following Trump's return, the United States remains crucial, but its influence appears to have hit a ceiling. Conversely, a growing consensus anticipates that China's influence will continue to expand over the next decade. For many emerging markets, the focus is no longer on "picking sides," but rather on how to forge the most advantageous strategic leverage within the crevices of great power competition.
Overall, the poll points to a more fluid and unstable period of global realignment. Many countries increasingly see China’s rise as difficult to reverse, while still remaining unwilling to cut themselves off from cooperation with the United States. It is precisely within this mindset—neither willing to entirely pivot to Beijing nor wholly submit to the United States —that emerging markets are beginning to reassess their global standing.
How the Global Public Perceives China's Future
Emerging markets are clearly more optimistic than Western countries about China’s future. In South Africa, 83% of respondents believe China's global influence will expand over the next decade, compared to 72% in Brazil and 57% in Russia. These figures indicate that, in the eyes of many non-Western societies, China's rise is no longer viewed as a fleeting phenomenon, but as an irreversible structural expansion.
The key is not simply about whether China is liked or disliked. It reflects fundamentally different assumptions about the future global order. For emerging markets, China is a new dealer at the table, offering alternatives and bargaining space. For Europe, China resembles a "systemic challenger" intent on dismantling the old stage and shuffling the deck.
