Global merchandise trade totalled an estimated 13.7tn in the first half of 2026, up 12.5 per cent from the same period in 2025, while services trade grew 10.5 per cent. Together, the two categories added roughly 2tn to global trade, putting full-year volumes on track for a record high.
Taken at face value, 2026 looks like a year of business-as-usual expansion — or better.
But the 12.5 per cent figure measures nominal trade value. The same UNCTAD report notes that a substantial share of the increase reflects prices rather than volume — without specifying how much. Every figure the agency publishes is nominal; the report itself contains no volume-price decomposition.
It does, however, publish two series built on the same base: the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of merchandise trade value, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of traded-goods prices. Both are seasonally adjusted, both are nominal, and neither includes services. Because the base periods match, dividing one by the other yields an approximation of trade volume.
Quarter-on-quarter growth in trade value accelerated steadily from 2.4 per cent to 6.4 per cent, while volume growth stayed pinned around 1.2 per cent. The acceleration was entirely a price phenomenon.
Of the four quarters, only the two in the second half of 2025 are confirmed figures: the first quarter of 2026 is preliminary, and the second is UNCTAD's nowcast as of July 7.
One detail that is easy to overlook: prices fell 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2025. Nine months ago, global trade was still in deflation; within four quarters, prices were rising roughly 5 per cent a quarter. The shipping disruption at the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over Middle East energy supply fall squarely in the middle of that turn.
Trade Value, Prices and Implied Trade Volume, by Quarter
Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, nominal, goods only — click a quarter for detail
Implied volume is the author's estimate (trade value ÷ prices), not an official UNCTAD figure — hover a bar for the precise two-decimal calculation. All series: seasonally adjusted, QoQ, nominal, goods only. Q1 2026 is preliminary; Q2 2026 is UNCTAD's nowcast (July 7, 2026).
I. A Baseline Whose Premise Has Already Been Overturned
Continue reading — this is where the analysis turns to the WTO's forecast history, the concentration of growth in AI-enabling goods, and the geopolitical realignment of trade corridors.
