The war in the Middle East has driven up energy costs, and energy-importing countries might be expected to bear the brunt. But the IMF's World Economic Outlook update, published in July, shows that a country's status as an energy importer or exporter is insufficient to explain the divergence in growth rates. In aggregate terms, the global economy has changed little. The growth forecast for 2026 was trimmed slightly to 3.0 per cent from 3.1 per cent in April, while the 2027 forecast was revised up to 3.4 per cent from 3.2 per cent, leaving the two-year total broadly unchanged.
Although the change in the global growth forecast has been limited, the war in the Middle East and the AI technology cycle are pulling national growth rates in opposite directions. Rising energy costs should in theory have placed greater pressure on importing countries, yet some energy-importing economies posted first-quarter growth that exceeded expectations. AI hardware exports are the key to understanding this divergence, and stand out as the most notable development in this forecast update.
Divergence in Cumulative 2026–2027 Growth Forecast Revisions
Six groups of economies, percentage points, April → July WEO comparison
Figures are approximate, as stated in the source figure package, not precise IMF-published decimals. The four AI hardware exporters are South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand.
