Amid Sino-US rivalry, geography, economics and security jointly shape the diplomatic choices of south-east Asia. The region sits in China's immediate neighbourhood, its economies are deeply intertwined with China's, and several of its states maintain security co-operation of varying depth with the US. South-east Asia's preferences between the two powers — and shifts in those preferences — are therefore closely watched. Against this backdrop, the 2026 State of Southeast Asia survey polled 2,008 opinion leaders from 11 Asean member states, all of whom were required to pass a screening on Asean-related knowledge.
On the forced-choice question, 52.0 per cent of respondents chose China and 48.0 per cent the US, reversing the 52.3 per cent lead the US held in 2025. The question, however, captures only a trade-off within a binary scenario and cannot be read as evidence of an overall regional tilt towards China. Other questions reveal a marked gap between influence and trust. Among respondents who regard China as the most influential economic power, 55.4 per cent are worried about its influence; among those who see it as the most influential political and strategic power, the share rises to 66.1 per cent.
The US, meanwhile, has slipped in assessments of its role in free trade and in upholding international rules, yet its value as a security partner endures. Japan and the EU, for their part, wield less influence than either China or the US but command greater trust. Taken together, south-east Asia's opinion leaders assess each power separately, weighing economic dependence, security needs, credibility on rules and political risk.
Unpacking the 52%: four countries and Timor-Leste behind the reversal
Interpreting the data first requires an account of the report's methodology. The surveys from 2019 to 2025 covered the ten Asean states; 2026 is the first to include Timor-Leste, with all 11 countries weighted equally. The 52.0 per cent choosing China in 2026 and the 47.7 per cent in 2025 therefore derive from different sets of countries, and the 4.3 percentage-point difference cannot be treated as a shift in preference among the original ten.
Recalculated to exclude Timor-Leste, the average share of the ten Asean states choosing China in 2026 stands at 51.4 per cent, against 48.6 per cent for the US — a rise of 3.7 percentage points on the 47.7 per cent recorded in 2025. With 58.2 per cent of Timorese respondents choosing China, its inclusion lifts the 11-country share by about 0.6 percentage points to 52.0 per cent, widening the year-on-year gain from 3.7 to 4.3 points. Whether or not Timor-Leste is included, China's share remains above that of the US.
On a like-for-like ten-country basis, China overtakes the US at 51.4%, rising to 52.0% with Timor-Leste included
Share choosing China vs the US if forced to align with one of them, by country basis
Note: 2026 Asean-10 figures calculated independently from the report's country-level tables.
At the country level, the share choosing China rose between 2025 and 2026 by 19.2, 14.3, 9.6 and 7.9 percentage points in Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia respectively. Gains in these four lifted the ten-country average by 5.1 points, while declines in the remaining six offset about 1.4 points, leaving a net increase of 3.7 points.
Gains in four countries drive China's lead, while the share choosing China falls in the other six
Share choosing China if forced to align, 2025 → 2026, by Asean member state (percentage-point change on the right)
Timor-Leste is not shown: 2026 is its first year in the survey, so it has no 2025 comparison (2026: 58.2% choosing China). Contribution to the Asean-10 average = country change ÷ 10, as all countries are weighted equally.
