"If you want to ruin someone, tell them to open a restaurant or start a media company," Dr Law Ka-chung once told me. Indeed, alongside Hong Kong's restaurant closure epidemic, media outlets are disappearing at an alarming rate. International media weathered a similar contraction several years ago with the rise of digital platforms (epitomised by The Huffington Post), but most have since stabilised after restructuring. Hong Kong's media decline, however, continues unabated, with Chinese political pressure undoubtedly a primary driver.

Traditional media must both scrutinise government and champion public interests—capabilities now beyond our reach. Yet trading intelligence analysis and consultancy services, delivering actionable insights to corporates and subscribers, remains viable. When I recently pitched Professor Simon Shen on launching a new venture in today's information-saturated landscape, we encountered considerable scepticism. Still, I remain bullish on the perpetually anxious destiny of Chinese communities worldwide.

The Curse of "Shirtsleeves to Shirtsleeves in Three Generations"—Today's Survivors Face Tomorrow's Upheaval

Chinese societies have endured relentless political upheaval over the past century, establishing a distinct "generational change" cycle every two to three decades.

Each upheaval validates this cyclical pattern. One generation may navigate political storms, but the next inevitably confronts wholesale disruption. Crucially, when survivors of the Cultural Revolution and political purges transfer wealth to their heirs, these second-generation beneficiaries often squander family fortunes through political naivety. This recurring instability has shaped Chinese collective consciousness, embedding expectations that "dramatic change lurks around every corner."

This historical trauma breeds perpetual insecurity. However patriotic or confident in current arrangements, Chinese families instinctively hedge against uncertainty. This hunger for protective intelligence represents the core value proposition of information analysis.

Economic forecasting, social risk assessment, and strategic advice on navigating political hazards constitute a vital "survival game" for communities hardened by turbulence.

Authoritarian Systems Make Information Scarcer as Economies Deteriorate

China confronts mounting economic headwinds. Most countries address such challenges by enhancing transparency and reducing transaction costs. China's unique system, however, generates perverse incentives that restrict information flows.

The consequence? Professional intelligence analysis becomes increasingly valuable. While economic and political pressures create uncertainty for overseas media, they simultaneously validate this sector's fundamental worth.

Back Markets, Not Governments

Industry players should approach government backing cautiously. Even former establishment insiders shouldn't depend on sustained public funding. Hence our deliberate rejection of foreign government grants and independence from Hong Kong or local government subsidies.

Governments inherently distrust markets, but information analysts must prioritise market validation over political approval. Maintaining conviction that professional insights deliver genuine marketplace value ensures market recognition and rewards.

These twin anxieties—historical trauma and economic uncertainty—combined with market confidence, underpin viable business models for specialised intelligence firms. Sinic Analytica exemplifies this approach: while occasionally publishing free content, we fundamentally operate as a research consultancy serving paying members and corporate clients.

Sinic Analytica is a UK-based advisory firm assembling expertise from Britain, Canada, America, Singapore, and Taiwan, specialising in political economy analysis. We primarily serve Asian multinational corporations, Greater China asset holders, and overseas Chinese investors.

Our services include regular political-economic commentary and deep-dive analysis, cultural intelligence sharing, proprietary indices and datasets, plus bespoke research on specific issues.

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Jacky